The Variety of Evidence Thesis: A Prolegomena to Causal Triangulation
Join us on Wednesday, October 14th for the Department of Epidemiology seminar series featuring Dr. George Davey Smith.
Abstract: The variety of evidence thesis (VET) has a long lineage in epistemology, and underlies current notions of causal triangulation in epidemiology. This talk will trace the origins and development of various strands of VET, from Whewellian consilience and Peirce’s cable-like conception of inquiry through to later traditions of convergent validity, evidential pluralism and triangulation. VET suggests that evidence with different sources of bias should be privileged. VET will be contrasted with the principle of total evidence, and discussion will cover when it is clear that a particular method applied to a specific question generates demonstrably misleading findings and can be discounted in the evaluation. Applying VET is the antithesis of using standard evidence pyramids. Inference is most robust when there has been the pre-registration of a protocol for the triangulation exercise.
Bio: George Davey Smith is a clinical epidemiologist and director of the MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit at the Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol. His research has pioneered approaches to causal inference in population health sciences, including developing and applying Mendelian randomization approaches. He is a member of the US National Academy of Medicine (NAM), of the European Molecular Biology Organization (EMBO) and received the 25th Anniversary MRC Millenium medal in 2025.
Speaker Information
George Davey Smith, FRS, MD, DSc, MSc, FMedSci, FRCP, FFPH
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