Could hantavirus become the next pandemic?
Three passengers on the cruise ship MV Hondius recently died from hantavirus infection, and at least four others have been sickened, sparking fears of another global pandemic. But epidemiologists quoted in the media—including Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health’s Bill Hanage—said it’s unlikely that hantavirus will spread widely.
In a May 6 Newsweek article, Hanage and other experts spoke about the hantavirus’ virulence and transmissibility.
They noted that the virus—which typically spreads among rodents—does not spread easily in humans, or before those infected start showing symptoms, unlike the flu or SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19). Even on a cruise ship where people live in close quarters for an extended period, transmission remained limited to a few people with the closest contact.
Hanage said, “It’s not the case fatality rate that matters for pandemic potential, it’s the ability to transmit between humans. If transmission happens efficiently enough before people become seriously ill, then there are very few constraints on virulence.”
Other experts noted that the hantavirus would need to undergo multiple evolutionary changes to become a pandemic threat.
Read the Newsweek article: The Morbid Reason Hantavirus Is Unlikely to Be Next Pandemic
