Excess Deaths: History of a Contested Concept
Abstract: The measure of “excess deaths” has become a familiar and important concept in epidemiology and health statistics, especially during crises when direct counts of mortality are complicated (e.g., COVID-19, heat waves and other natural disasters, etc.). While the measure is useful, and can be politically powerful, it is also problematic: methodological compromises inevitably expose the reported counts to contestation that often seeks to deny the seriousness of the health threat. I will explore the history of the concept of “excess deaths,” describing the challenges it hoped to solve, some of the competing measures (e.g., expected deaths), and the persistent debates. By understanding the history of the concept and the debates, it is possible to develop strategies for using the concept most effectively.
Bio: Trained in psychiatry and history of science, David Jones teaches history of medicine, medical ethics, and social medicine at Harvard University. His research has ranged from the history of epidemics to heart disease, cardiac therapeutics, race, air pollution, and the health effects of the climate crisis.
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David S. Jones, MD, PhD
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