New Report by the Atrocity Prevention Lab: A scoping review on data analytics to support EW/EA to prevent mass atrocities
The Atrocity Prevention Lab conducted a scoping review aimed at identifying and analyzing what kinds of data and analytical methods are being used to inform early warning (EW) and early action (EA) efforts to prevent conflict and mass atrocities. EW involves alerting decision-makers to potential conflict, while EA focuses on preventing violence against civilians. Additionally, the review set out to characterize the implementation and impact of these analytical tools in practical settings, such as at the program or policy level. The goal was to create a research foundation from which a standardized toolkit for better decision-making and outcomes for threatened populations could evolve.
This scoping review systematically examined the existing literature on data analytics used for early warning and early action in preventing conflict and mass atrocities. A comprehensive search strategy was employed to identify relevant studies, which were then rigorously screened and analyzed.
The review found that the research landscape is characterized by a focus on prediction of conflict rather than mass atrocities, with a lack of consensus on key variables, methods, and outcomes. There’s general agreement on the importance of factors like past conflict, economic conditions, governance, environment, and geography in predicting violence. However, studies vary widely in understanding the impact of ethnicity, resources, and other factors. The complex interplay between these factors makes predicting conflict and atrocities challenging, and further foreshadows the complexity of standardizing conflict and mass atrocity prediction.
Regarding methods, the research community predominantly uses regression analysis but, again, lacks consensus on key variables. Additionally, spatial analysis is underutilized despite its importance. The review found that most research focuses on country-level analysis, overlooking crucial sub-national factors and thus limiting practical application of findings. The review emphasizes the need for more standardized, diverse, and geographically granular research to better understand and address the intricacies of conflict and mass atrocities.
Geographic biases in both research and data are evident, with a concentration of authorship in high-income countries despite study locations predominantly set in middle- to low-income countries. Even with the potential of advanced analytical techniques, the field still relies heavily on traditional methods.
The review highlights several gaps, including the need for more standardized methodologies, a greater focus on mass atrocities, and increased attention to sub-national analysis. Additionally, the underrepresentation of low- and middle-income countries in both research and data authorship is a significant limitation. Furthermore, a critical gap is the lack of connection between research and real-world policy. None of the studies reviewed directly reported on the implementation or impact of their research on conflict and mass atrocity prevention programming and/or policy. This suggests that valuable research remains unused by policymakers and practitioners in affected areas. Bridging this gap between research and practice is crucial for improving the effectiveness of EW/EA initiatives.
This work examined how data and analytics are used in EW/EA efforts for conflict and mass atrocity prevention, and the findings highlight the urgent need for improved early warning systems to prevent mass atrocities. Ultimately, this scoping review underscores the critical gap between research and practical application, and calls for increased efforts to bridge this divide and translate findings into effective EW/EA strategies.
You can read the full scoping review here.