Working Papers

The PDGA and the Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies invite members of the public health community to submit working papers reflecting their research. The purpose of our Working Paper Series is to share research prior to journal publication and stimulate debate and critical comments. Working papers also give an opportunity to authors to publish longer and more detailed material than can appear in a journal.

All papers go through a review process at the Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies. However, full responsibility for the content of the papers remains with the author(s).

For submissions, comments or questions, please email David Canning at dcanning@hsph.harvard.edu.

2021

• • Addressing the COVID-19 Pandemic: Comparing Alternative Value Frameworks
    Maddalena Ferranna, JP Sevilla, David E. Bloom
    PGDA Working Paper #189.2021

2020

• • Act Early to Prevent Infections and Save Lives: Causal Impact of Diagnostic Efficiency on the COVID-19 Pandemic
    Simiao Chen, Zhangfeng Jin, David E. Bloom
    PGDA Working Paper #188.2020
  • Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses
    David E. Bloom, Michael Kuhn, and Klaus Prettner
    PGDA Working Paper #187.2020
  • A Theory of Social Impact Bonds
    Daniel L. Tortorice, David E. Bloom, Paige Kirby, and John Regan
    PGDA Working Paper #186.2020
  • The Long-Term Cognitive and Schooling Effects of Childhood Vaccinations in China
    Hamid R. Oskorouchi, Alfonso Sousa-Poza, and David E. Bloom
    PGDA Working Paper #185.2020
  • Health Dynamics Shape Life-Cycle Incomes
    Rainer Kotschy
    PGDA Working Paper #184.2020
  • Spurring Economic Growth through Human Development: Research Results and Guidance for Policymakers
    David E. Bloom, Alexander Khoury, Vadim Kufenko, and Klaus Prettner
    PGDA Working Paper #183.2020
  • Going Beyond GDP with a Parsimonious Indicator: Inequality-Adjusted Healthy Lifetime Income
    David E. Bloom, Victoria Y. Fan, Vadim Kufenko, Osondu Ogbuoji, Klaus Prettner, and Gavin Yamey
    PGDA Working Paper #182.2020
  • Value of Vaccination in India: Past, Present, and Future Prospects
    David E. Bloom, Daniel Cadarette, Maddalena Ferranna, Arindam Nandi, and Anita Shet
    PGDA Working Paper #181.2020
  • The Future of Work: Challenges for Job Creation due to Global Demographic Change and Automation
    Ana Abeliansky, Eda Algur, David E. Bloom, and Klaus Prettner
    PGDA Working Paper #180.2020

2019

• • Vaccines and Global Health In Search of a Sustainable Model for Vaccine Development and Delivery
    David E. Bloom, Victoria Y. Fan, and J. P. Sevilla
    PGDA Working Paper #179.2019
  • The Broad Socioeconomic Benefits of Vaccination
    David E. Bloom, Victoria Y. Fan, and J. P. Sevilla
    PGDA Working Paper #178.2019
  • Epidemics & Economics
    David E. Bloom, Daniel Cadarette, and J.P. Sevilla
    PGDA Working Paper #177.2019
  • The Promise and Peril of Universal Health Care
    David E. Bloom, Alexander Khoury, and Ramnath Subbaraman
    PGDA Working Paper #176.2019
  • The Demography of Aging in Low- and Middle-Income Countries Chronological versus Functional Perspectives
    Nikkil Sudharsanan and David E. Bloom
    PGDA Working Paper #175.2019
  • Valuing Health as Development Going Beyond Gross Domestic Product
    Victoria Y Fan, David E Bloom, Osondu Ogbuoji, Klaus Prettner, and Gavin Yamey
    PGDA Working Paper #174.2019
  • The Macroeconomic Burden of Noncommunicable Diseases in the United States Estimates and Projections
    Simiao Chen, Michael Kuhn, Klaus Prettner, and David E. Bloom
    PGDA Working Paper #173.2019
  • Introduction Priority Setting in Global Health
    David E. Bloom, Daniel Cadarette, Rashmi Dayalu and Jessica Sullivan
    PGDA Working Paper #172.2019
  • Priority Setting in Health Development and Application of a Multi‑Criteria Algorithm for the Population of New Zealand’s Waikato Region
    Rashmi Dayalu, Elizabeth T. Cafiero‑Fonseca, Victoria Y. Fan, Heather Schofield, and David E. Bloom
    PGDA Working Paper #171.2019
  • Antimicrobial Resistance and the Role of Vaccines
    David E. Bloom, Steven Black, David Salisbury, and Rino Rappuoli
    PGDA Working Paper #170.2019
  • Toward Economic Evaluation of the Value of Vaccines and Other Health Technologies in Addressing AMR
    J.P. Sevilla, David E. Bloom, Daniel Cadarette, Mark Jit, and Marc Lipsitch
    PGDA Working Paper #169.2019
  • Vaccine Candidates for Poor Nations Are Going to Waste
    David C. Kaslow, Steve Black, David E. Bloom, Mahima Datla, David Salisbury, and Rino Rappuoli
    PGDA Working Paper #168.2019
  • Feature Interview with Dr. John Beard
    David E. Bloom and Uwe Sunde
    PGDA Working Paper #167.2019
  • Japan’s Age Wave Challenges and Solutions
    David E. Bloom, Paige Kirby, JP Sevilla, and Andrew Stawasz
    PGDA Working Paper #166.2019
  • A Partnership for Transforming Mental Health Globally
    Daniel V Vigo, Vikram Patel, Anne Becker, David Bloom, Winnie Yip, Giuseppe Raviola, Shekhar Saxena, and Arthur Kleinman
    PGDA Working Paper #165.2019
  • Infectious Disease Threats in the Twenty-First Century: Strengthening the Global Response
    David E. Bloom and and Daniel Cadarette
    PGDA Working Paper #164.2019
  • Fertility Response to Climate Shocks
    Sylvain Dessy, Francesca Marchetta, Roland Pongou, and Luca Tiberti
    PGDA Working Paper #163.2019

2018

• • The Returns to Parental Health: Evidence from Indonesia
    Dara Lee Luca and David E. Bloom
    PGDA Working Paper #162.2018
  • Health and Economic Growth: Reconciling the Micro and Macro Evidence
    David E. Bloom, David Canning, Rainer Kotschy, Klaus Prettner, and Johannes Schünemann
    PGDA Working Paper #161.2018
  • The Macroeconomic Impact of Fertility Changes in an Aging Population
    Neha Bairoliya, Ray Miller, and Akshar Saxena
    PGDA Working Paper #160.2018
  • Health, Longevity, and Welfare Inequality of the Elderly
    Ray Miller and Neha Bairoliya
    PGDA Working Paper #159.2018
  • Pension Plan Heterogeneity and Retirement Behavior
    Neha Bairoliya
    PGDA Working Paper #158.2018
  • The Marriage Gap: Optimal Aging and Death in Partnerships
    Johannes Schünemann, Holger Strulik, and Timo Trimborn
    PGDA Working Paper #157.2018
  • Life Expectancy and Life-Cycle Wages: Evidence from the Cardiovascular Revolution in U.S. States
    Rainer Kotschy
    PGDA Working Paper #156.2018
  • The Impact of Medical Innovations on Longevity Inequality
    Ivan Frankovic and Michael Kuhn
    PGDA Working Paper #155.2018
  • Housing equity withdrawal in later life: Is a home more than asset-based welfare?
    Declan French, Donal McKillop, and Tripti Sharma
    PGDA Working Paper #154.2018
  • Health and Economic Growth
    David E. Bloom, Michael Kuhn, and Klaus Prettner
    PGDA Working Paper #153.2018
  • Demography, Unemployment, Automation, and Digitalization: Implications for the Creation of (Decent) Jobs, 2010–2030
    David E. Bloom, Mathew J. McKenna, and Klaus Prettner
    PGDA Working Paper #152.2018

2017

• • • Market mechanisms for newborn health in Nepal
      Karsten Lunze, Rosie Dawkins, Abeezer Tapia, Sidharth Anand, Michael Chu, and David E. Bloom
      PGDA Working Paper #151.2017
    • The Impact of Pneumococcal Vaccination on Pneumonia Hospitalizations and Related Costs in Ontario: A Population-Based Ecological Study
      Dara Lee Luca, Jeffrey C. Kwong, Anna Chu, Beate Sander, Ryan O’Reilly, Allison J. McGeer, and David E. Bloom
      PGDA Working Paper #150.2017
    • Emerging infectious diseases: A proactive approach
      David E. Bloom, Steven Black, and Rino Rappuoli
      PGDA Working Paper #149.2017
    • Economic Perspectives on Global Population Aging:
      Demography is Not Destiny
      David E. Bloom, David Canning, and Alyssa Lubet
      PGDA Working Paper #148.2017
    • Disease and economic burdens of dengue
      Marcia C. Castro, Mary E. Wilson, and David E. Bloom
      PGDA Working Paper #147.2017
    • Invest in Women and Prosper
      David E. Bloom, Michael Kuhn, and Klaus Prettner
      PGDA Working Paper #146.2017
    • Legal Status and Deprivation in India’s Urban Slums: An Analysis of Two Decades of National Sample Survey Data
      Laura B. Nolan, David E. Bloom, and Ramnath Subbaraman
      PGDA Working Paper #145.2017
    • The economic burden of noncommunicable diseases and mental health conditions: results for Costa Rica, Jamaica, and Peru
      David E. Bloom, Simiao Chen, and Mark McGovern
      PGDA Working Paper #144.2017
    • The full benefits of adult pneumococcal vaccination: A systematic review
      Elizabeth T. Cafiero-Fonseca, Andrew Stawasz, Sydney T. Johnson, Reiko Sato, and David E. Bloom
      PGDA Working Paper #143.2017
    • Deploy vaccines to fight superbugs
      Rino Rappuoli, David E. Bloom, and Steve Black
      PGDA Working Paper #142.2017
    • The long-term consequences of the global 1918 influenza pandemic: A systematic analysis of 117 IPUMS international census data sets
      Sebastian Vollmer and Juditha Wójcik
      PGDA Working Paper #141.2017
    • The Economic Burden of Chronic Diseases: Estimates and Projections for China, Japan, and South Korea
      David E. Bloom, Simiao Chen, Michael Kuhn, Mark E. McGovern, Les Oxley, and Klaus Prettner
      PGDA Working Paper #140.2017
    • Health gradients in South Africa: Inequalities in the measure of the beholder
      Carlos Riumallo-Herl,David Canning, Ryan Wagner, Chodziwaddiza Kabudula, Mark Collinson
      PGDA Working Paper #139.2017
    • Moving beyond traditional valuation of vaccination: Needs and opportunities
      David E. Bloom, Logan Brenzel, Daniel Cadarette, and Jessica Sullivan
      PGDA Working Paper #138.2017
    • Nutritional Considerations for Healthy Aging and Reduction in Age-Related Chronic Disease
      Julie Shlisky, David E. Bloom, Amy R. Beaudreault, Katherine L. Tucker, Heather H. Keller, Yvonne Freund-Levi, Roger A. Fielding, Feon W. Cheng, Gordon L. Jensen, Dayong Wu, and Simin N. Meydani
      PGDA Working Paper #137.2017
    • Disease and economic burdens of dengue
      Marcia C. Castro, Mary E. Wilson, David E. Bloom
      PGDA Working Paper #136.2017
    • Legal Status and Deprivation in India’s Urban Slums: An Analysis of Two Decades of National Sample Survey Data
      Laura B. Nolan, David E. Bloom, and Ramnath Subbaraman
      PGDA Working Paper #135.2017
    • Misaligned Stakeholders and Health System Underperformance
      David E. Bloom, Daniel Cadarette, Jonty Roland, Jessica Sullivan, and members of
      The World Economic Forum’s Industry Agenda Council on the Future of the Health Sector
      PGDA Working Paper #134.2017

2016

• • • • • Looking Back on the Lessons of “Higher Education and Developing Countries: Peril and Promise”—Perspectives on China and India
          David E. Bloom, Philip G. Altbach, and Henry Rosovsky
          PGDA Working Paper #133.2016
        • Population Aging in India: Facts, Issues, and Questions 
          Arunika Agarwal, Alyssa Lubet, Elizabeth Mitgang, Sanjay Mohanty, and David E. Bloom
          PGDA Working Paper #132.2016
        • Demography of Global Aging
          David E. Bloom, Elizabeth Mitgang, and Benjamin Osher
          PGDA Working Paper #131.2016
        • The Global Demography of Aging. Facts, Explanations, Future
          David E. Bloom and Dara Lee Luca
          PGDA Working Paper #130.2016
        • Africa’s Prospects for Enjoying a Demographic Dividend
          David E. Bloom, Michael Kuhn, and Klaus Prettner
          PGDA Working Paper #129.2016

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2015

• • • • • The Effect of Schooling on Teenage Fertility: Evidence from the 1994 Education Reform in Ethiopia
          Elina Pradhan and David Canning
          PGDA Working Paper #128.2015
        • Prospects for Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Demographic Perspective
          David E. Bloom, Jocelyn Finlay, Salal Humair, Andrew Mason, Olanrewaju Olaniyan, and Adedoyin Soyibo
          PGDA Working Paper #127.2015
        • The contribution of female health to economic development
          David E. Bloom, Michael Kuhn, and Klaus Prettner
          PGDA Working Paper #126.2015
        • Vaccination and All Cause Child Mortality 1985-2011: Global Evidence from the Demographic and Health Surveys
          Mark E. McGovern and David Canning
          PGDA Working Paper #125.2015
        • Distal Determinants of Fertility decline: Evidence from 640 Indian Districts
          Sanjay K. Mohanty, Guenther Fink, Rajesh K. Chauhan, and David Canning
          PGDA Working Paper #124.2015
        • HIV/AIDS Perspective Paper
          Pascal Geldsetzer, David Bloom, Salal Humair, and Till Bärnighausen
          PGDA Working Paper #123.201
        • Demographic Influences on U.S. Economic Prospects
          David Bloom and Jay Lorsch
          PGDA Working Paper #122.2015
        • Education, Gender, and State-Level Gradients in the Health of Older Indians: Evidence from Biomarker Data
          Jinkook Lee, Mark E. McGovern, David E. Bloom, P. Arokiasamy, Arun Risbud, Jennifer O’Brien, Varsha Kale, and Peifeng Hu
          PGDA Working Paper #121.2015

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2014

• • • • • Returns to Education in Low and Middle-Income Countries: Evidence from the Living Standards and Measurement Surveys
          Günther Fink and Evan Peet
          PGDA Working Paper #120.2014
        • Effects of urbanization on economic growth and human capital formation in Africa
          Mohamed Arouri, Adel Ben Youssef, Cuong Nguyen-Viet, and Agnès Soucat
          PGDA Working Paper #119.2014
        • Comparing the Relationship Between Stature and Later Life Health in Six Low and Middle Income Countries
          Mark E. McGovern
          PGDA Working Paper #118.2014
        • The Economics of Fertility Timing: An Euler Equation Approach
          David Canning, Declan French, and Michael Moore
          PGDA Working Paper #117.2014
        • Children of Drought: Rainfall Shocks and Early Child Health in Rural India
          Santosh Kumar, Ramona Molitor, Sebastian Vollmer
          PGDA Working Paper #116.2014
        • Does Urbanization Help Poverty Reduction in Rural Areas? Evidence from Vietnam
          Mohamed Arouri, Adel Ben Youssef, and Cuong Nguyen-Viet
          PGDA Working Paper #115.2014
        • Longitudinal Aging Study in India: Biomarker Data Documentation
          David E. Bloom, Perry Hu, P. Arokiasamy, Arun Risbud, T.V. Sekher, S.K. Mohanty, Varsha Kale, Jennifer O’Brien, Sandy Chien, and Jinkook Lee
          PGDA Working Paper #114.2014
        • A Flow Measure of Missing Women by Age and Disease
          Stephan Klasen and Sebastian Vollmer
          PGDA Working Paper #113.2014
        • Physical Stature Decline and the Health Status of the Elderly Population in England
          Alan Fernihough, Mark E. McGovern
          PGDA Working Paper#112.2014

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2013

• • • • • Education System Reform in Pakistan: Why, When, and How?
          Mehnaz Aziz, David E. Bloom, Salal Humair, Emmanuel Jimenez, Larry Rosenberg, Zeba Sathar
          PGDA Working Paper#111.2013
        • A demographic dividend for Sub-Saharan Africa: Source, magnitude, and realization
          David E. Bloom, Salal Humair, Larry Rosenberg, JP Sevilla, James Trussell
          PGDA Working Paper#110.2013
        • HIV Does Matter for Fertility: Human Capital, Mortality and Family Size
          Günther Fink, Sebastian Linnemayr
          PGDA Working Paper#109.2013
        • Innovations in Health Care and Aging
          Harvard Advanced Leadership Initiative
          PGDA Working Paper#108.2013
        • The Economic Impact of Non-communicable Disease in China and India: Estimates, Projections, and Comparisons
          David E. Bloom, Elizabeth T. Cafiero, Mark E. McGovern, Klaus Prettner, Anderson Stanciole, Jonathan Weiss, Samuel Bakkila, Larry Rosenberg
          PGDA Working Paper#107.2013
        • The Effect of a Constitutional Right to Health on Population Health in 157 Countries, 1970-2007: the Role of Democratic Governance
          Hiroaki Matsuura
          PGDA Working Paper#106.2013
        • Do Fertility Transitions Influence Infant Mortality Declines? Evidence from Early Modern Germany
          Alan Fernihough, Mark E. McGovern
          PGDA Working Paper#105.2013
        • The Economic Case for Devoting Public Resources to Health
          David E. Bloom, Günther Fink
          PGDA Working Paper#104.2013
        • Global health governance and tropical diseases
          Till Bärnighausen, David E. Bloom, Salal Humair
          PGDA Working Paper#103.2013
        • The design and implementation of public pension systems in developing countries: Issues and options
          David E. Bloom, Roddy McKinnon
          PGDA Working Paper#102.2013
        • Using Interviewer Random Effects to Calculate Unbiased HIV Prevalence Estimates in the Presence of Non-Response: a Bayesian Approach
          Mark E. McGovern, Till Bärnighausen, Joshua A. Salomon, David Canning
          PGDA Working Paper#101.2013
        • The Emergence of Three Human Development Clubs
          Sebastian Vollmer, Hajo Holzmann, Florian Ketterer, Stephan Klasen, David Canning
          PGDA Working Paper#100.2013
        • Urban Mortality Transitions: The Role of Slums
          Günther Fink, Isabel Günther, Kenneth Hill
          PGDA Working Paper#99.2013
        • Aging and Productivity: Introduction
          David E. Bloom, Alfonso Sousa-Poza
          PGDA Working Paper#98.2013

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2012

• • • • • • Estimating Household Permanent Income from Ownership of Physical Assets

June Y. T. Po, Jocelyn E. Finlay, Mark B. Brewster, David Canning
PGDA Working Paper#97.2012

• • • • • • Reproductive Health Laws Around the World

Jocelyn E. Finlay, David Canning, June Y. T. Po
PGDA Working Paper#96.2012

• • • • • • Still Unequal At Birth: Birth Weight, Socioeconomic Status, And Outcomes at Age 9

Mark E. McGovern
PGDA Working Paper#95.2012

• • • • • • A Practical Introduction to Stata

Mark E. McGovern
PGDA Working Paper#94.2012

• • • • • • Microeconomic Foundations of the Demographic Dividend

David E. Bloom, David Canning, Günther Fink, Jocelyn E. Finlay
PGDA Working Paper#93.2012

• • • • • • Youth in the Balance

David E. Bloom
PGDA Working Paper#92.2012

• • • • • • Increasing life expectancy and optimal retirement: does population aging necessarily undermine economic prosperity?

Klaus Prettner, David Canning
PGDA Working Paper#91.2012

• • • • • • Public education, technological change and economic prosperity: semi-endogenous growth revisited

Klaus Prettner
PGDA Working Paper#90.2012

• • • • • • Global Population Ageing: Peril or Promise?

John Beard, Simon Biggs, David Bloom, Linda Fried, Paul Hogan,
Alexandre Kalache, and Jay Olshansky
PGDA Working Paper#89.2012

• • • • • • The Association of Maternal Age with Infant Mortality, Child Anthropometric Failure, Diarrhoea, and Anaemia for First Births: Evidence from 55 Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Jocelyn E. Finlay, Emre Özaltin, and David Canning
PGDA Working Paper#88.2012

• • • • • • The Global Economic Burden of Noncommunicable Diseases

Bloom, D.E., Cafiero, E.T., Jané-Llopis, E., Abrahams-Gessel, S., Bloom, L.R., Fathima, S., Feigl, A.B., Gaziano, T., Mowafi, M., Pandya, A., Prettner, K., Rosenberg, L., Seligman, B., Stein, A.Z., and Weinstein, C.
PGDA Working Paper#87.2012

• • • • • • Health systems and HIV treatment in sub-Saharan Africa: Matching intervention and program evaluation strategies

Till Bärnighausen, David E. Bloom, and Salal Humair
PGDA Working Paper#86.2012

• • • • • • Strengthening Health Systems: Perspectives for economic evaluation

Till Bärnighausen, David E. Bloom, and Salal Humair
PGDA Working Paper#85.2012

• • • • • • Declining fertility and economic well-being: do education and health ride to the rescue?

Klaus Prettner, David E. Bloom, and Holger Strulik
PGDA Working Paper#84.2012

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2011

• • • • • • Social Protection of Older People

David E. Bloom, Emmanuel Jimenez, and Larry Rosenberg
PGDA Working Paper#83.2011

• • • • • • Longitudinal Aging Study in India: Vision, Design, Implementation, and Some Early Results

P. Arokiasamy, D. Bloom, J. Lee, K. Feeney, and M. Ozolins
PGDA Working Paper#82.2011

• • • • • • The Effect of Childhood Measles Vaccination on School Enrollment in Matlab, Bangladesh

Julia Driessen, Abdur Razzaque, Damian Walker, and David Canning
PGDA Working Paper#81.2011

• • • • • • Progress in Health around the World

David Canning
PGDA Working Paper#80.2011

• • • • • • The Causes and Consequences of the Demographic Transition

David Canning
PGDA Working Paper#79.2011

• • • • • • Investing in Health to Improve the Wellbeing of the Disadvantaged: Reversing the Augment of the Marmot Reports

David Canning and Diana Bowser
PGDA Working Paper#78.2011

• • • • • • The Effect of Malaria on Settlement and Land Use: Evidence from the Brazilian Amazon

Shufang Zhang, Marcia C. Castro, and David Canning
PGDA Working Paper#77.2011

• • • • • • The Effect of Maternal Tetanus Immunization on Children’s Schooling Attainment in Matlab, Bangladesh: Follow-up of a Randomized Trial

David Canning, Abdur Razzaque, Julia Driessen, Damian G. Walker, Peter Kim Streatfield, and Mohammad Yunus
PGDA Working Paper#76.2011

• • • • • • From Burden to “Best Buys”: Reducing the Economic Impact of Non-Communicable Diseases in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

David E. Bloom, Dan Chisholm, Eva Jané-Llopis, Klaus Prettner, Adam Stein, and Andrea Feigl
PGDA Working Paper#75.2011

• • • • • • R&D-based Growth in the Post-modern Era

Holger Strulik, Klaus Prettner, and Alexia Prskawetz
PGDA Working Paper#74.2011

• • • • • • Long-Run Trends of Human Aging and Longevity

Holger Strulik and Sebastian Vollmer
PGDA Working Paper#73.2011

• • • • • • Population Aging and Endogenous Economic Growth

Klaus Prettner
PGDA Working Paper#72.2011

• • • • • • Population Aging: Facts, Challenges, and Responses

David E. Bloom, Axel Boersch-Supan, Patrick McGee, and Atsushi Seike
PGDA Working Paper#71.2011

• • • • • • The Economic Effects of Malaria Eradication: Evidence from an Intervention in Uganda

Jeremy Barofsky, Claire Chase, Tobenna Anekwe, and Farshad Farzadfar
PGDA Working Paper#70.2011

• • • • • • The Effect of Vaccination on Children’s Physical and Cognitive Development in the Philippines

David E. Bloom David Canning and Erica Seiguer
PGDA Working Paper#69.2011

• • • • • • The Future of South Asia: Population Dynamics, Economic Prospects, and Regional Coherence

David E. Bloom and Larry Rosenberg
PGDA Working Paper#68.2011

• • • • • • Demographic Change and Economic Growth in South Asia

David E. Bloom, David Canning, and Larry Rosenberg
PGDA Working Paper#67.2011

• • • • • • Demographics and Development Policy

David E. Bloom and David Canning
PGDA Working Paper#66.2011

• • • • • • Population Dynamics in India and Implications for Economic Growth

David E. Bloom
PGDA Working Paper#65.2011

• • • • • • Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth

David E. Bloom, David Canning, and Günther Fink
PGDA Working Paper#64.2011

2010

• • • • • • The Long-run Determinants of Fertility: One Century of Demographic Change 1900-1999

Dierk Herzer, Holger Strulik, Sebastian Vollmer
PGDA Working Paper#63.2010

• • • • • • Nigeria The Next Generation Report

David E. Bloom et al.
PGDA Working Paper#62.2010

• • • • • • Introduction: Social Security and the Challenge of Demographic Change

David E. Bloom and Roddy McKinnon
PGDA Working Paper#61.2010

• • • • • • Economic Security Arrangements in the Context of Population Ageing in India

David E. Bloom, Ajay Mahal, Larry Rosenberg, and Jaypee Sevilla
PGDA Working Paper#60.2010

• • • • • • Data Sets on Pensions and Health: Data Collection and Sharing for Policy Design Jinkook Lee

PGDA Working Paper#59.2010

• • • • • • Optimal Aging and Death

Carl-Johan Dalgaard and Holger Strulik
PGDA Working Paper#58.2010

• • • • • • The Fertility Transition Around the World -1950-2005

Holger Strulik and Sebastian Vollmer
PGDA Working Paper#57.2010

• • • • • • Rethinking the Benefits and Costs of Childhood Vaccination: The Example of the Haemophilus influenzae Type B Vaccine

Till Bärnighausen, David E. Bloom, David Canninga, A. Friedmana, Orine Levine, Jennifer O’Brien, Lois Privor-Dummc, Damian Walker
PGDA Working Paper#56.2010

• • • • • • Universal Antiretroviral Treatment: The Challenge of Human Resources

Till B?rnighausen, David E. Bloom, Salal Humair
PGDA Working Paper#55.2010

• • • • • • Economic Consequences of Low Fertility in Europe

Guest Editors: David E. Bloom and Alfonso Sousa-Poza
PGDA Working Paper#54.2010

• • • • • • Population Aging and Economic Growth in China

Judith Banister, David E. Bloom, and Larry Rosenberg
PGDA Working Paper#53.2010

2009

• • • • • • A Mathematical Model for Estimating the Number of Health Workers Required for Universal Antiretrovial Treatment

Till Bärnighausen, David E. Bloom and Salal Humair
PGDA Working Paper#52.2009

• • • • • • Axiomatic Foundations of Cost Effectiveness Analysis

David Canning
PGDA Working Paper#51.2009

• • • • • • Effects of State-Level Public Spending on Health on the Mortality Probability in India

Mansour Farahani, S.V. Subramanian, and David Canning
PGDA Working Paper#50.2009

• • • • • • Short and Long-Term Relationship Between Physician Density on Infant Mortality: A Longitudinal Econometric Analysis

Mansour Farahani, S.V. Subramanian, and David Canning
PGDA Working Paper#49.2009

• • • • • • The Effect of Social Security Reform on Male Retirement in High and Middle Income Countries

David E. Bloom, David Canning, Guenther Fink, and Jocelyn Finlay
PGDA Working Paper#48.2009

• • • • • • The Graying of the Global Population and Its Macroeconomic Consequences

David E. Bloom, David Canning, and Guenther Fink
PGDA Working Paper#47.2009

• • • • • • Changing Research Perspectives on the Global Health Workforce

Till Bärnighausen and David E. Bloom
PGDA Working Paper#46.2009

• • • • • • The Economic Case for Expanding Vaccination Coverage of Children

Till Bärnighausen, David E. Bloom, David Canning, Abigail Friedman, Orin Levine, Jennifer O’Brien, Lois Privor-Dumm, Damian Walker
PGDA Working Paper#45.2009

• • • • • Disease and Development Revisited
          David E. Bloom, David Canning, and Guenther Fink
          PGDA Working Paper#44.2009
        • • Financial Incentives for Return of Service in Underserved Areas: A Systematic Review

Till Bärnighausen and David E. Bloom
PGDA Working Paper#43.2009

2008

• • • • • • Demographic Change, Institutional Settings, and Labor Supply

David E. Bloom, David Canning, Günther Fink and Jocelyn Finlay
PGDA Working Paper#42.2008

• • • • • • Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia

David E. Bloom and Jocelyn Finlay
PGDA Working Paper#41.2008

• • • • • • Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia

David E. Bloom, David Canning and Jocelyn Finlay
PGDA Working Paper#40.2008

• • • • • • Accounting for the Full Benefits of Childhood Caccination in South Africa

Till Bärnighausen, David E. Bloom, David Canning and Jennifer O’Brien
PGDA Working Paper#39.2008

• • • • • • Estimating Health Worker Need to Provide Antiretroviral Treatment in the Developing World

Till Bärnighausen, David E. Bloom and Salal Humair
PGDA Working Paper#38.2008

• • • • • • Designing Financial-Incentive Programmes for Return of Medical Service in Underserved Areas of Sub-Saharan Africa

Till Bärnighausen and David E. Bloom
PGDA Working Paper#37.2008

• • • • • • Financial Incentives for Return of Service in Underserved Areas: A Systematic Review

Till Bärnighausen and David E. Bloom
PGDA Working Paper#36.2008

• • • • • • Disease Control

Dean T. Jamison, Prabhat Jha and David E. Bloom
PGDA Working Paper#35.2008

• • • • • • Social Interactions and Fertility in Developing Countries

David E. Bloom, David Canning, Isabel Günther and Sebastian Linnemayr
PGDA Working Paper#34.2008

• • • • • • The Mortality and Morbidity Transitions in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Adult Heights

Yoko Akachi and David Canning
PGDA Working Paper#33.2008

• • • • • The High Cost of Low Fertility in Europe
          David E. Bloom, David Canning, Günther Fink, and Jocelyn E. Finlay
          PGDA Working Paper#32.2008
        • • Population Aging and Economic Growth

David E. Bloom, David Canning and Günther Fink
PGDA Working Paper#31.2008

• • • • • • Urbanization and the Wealth of Nations

David E. Bloom, David Canning and Günther Fink
PGDA Working Paper#30.2008

2007

• • • • • • • Urban Settlement: Data, Measures, and Trends

David E. Bloom, David Canning, Günther Fink, Tarun Khanna, and Patrick Salyer
PGDA Working Paper#29.2007

• • • • • • • The Contribution of Population Health and Demographic Change to Economic Growth in China and India

David E. Bloom, David Canning, Linlin Hu, Yuanli Liu, Ajay Mahal, and Winnie Yip
PGDA Working Paper#28.2007

• • • • • • • Valuing Lives Equally and Welfare Economics

David Canning
PGDA Working Paper#27.2007

• • • • • • • A Theory of Retirement

David E. Bloom, David Canning, and Michael Moore
PGDA Working Paper#26.2007

• • • • • • • Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend

David E. Bloom, David Canning, Günther Fink and Jocelyn E. Finlay
PGDA Working Paper#25.2007

• • • • • • • “Conditional scholarships” for HIV/AIDS Health Workers: Educating and Retaining the Workforce to Provide Antiretroviral Treatment in Sub-Saharan Africa
              Till Bärnighausen and David E. Bloom
              PGDA Working Paper#24.2007
            • Realizing the Demographic Dividend: Is Africa Any Different?

David E. Bloom, David Canning, Günther Fink, Jocelyn Finlay
PGDA Working Paper#23.2007

• • • • • • • The Height of Women in Sub-Saharan Africa: the Role of Health, Nutrition, and Income in Childhood

Yoko Akachi and David Canning
PGDA Working Paper#22.2007

• • • • • • • The Role of Health in Economic Development

Jocelyn Finlay
PGDA Working Paper #21.2007

• • • • • • Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?
            David E. Bloom, David Canning, Günther Fink, Jocelyn Finlay
            PGDA Working Paper #20.2007

2006

• • • • • • Demographic Change, Social Security Systems, and Savings

David E. Bloom and David Canning, Rick Mansfield, and Michael Moore
PGDA Working Paper #19.2006

• • • • • • The Economics of HIV/AIDS in Low-Income Countries: The Case for Prevention
            

David Canning
PGDA Working Paper #18.2006

• • • • • • The Effect of Subjective Survival Probabilities on Retirement and Wealth in the United States

David E. Bloom, David Canning, Michael Moore, and Younghwan Song
PGDA Working Paper #17.2006

• • • • • • Assessing the Economic Impact of HIV/AIDS on Nigerian Households: A Propensity Score Matching Approach

David Canning, Ajay Mahal, Kunle Odumosu, Prosper Okonkwo
PGDA Working Paper #16.2006

• • • • • • Booms, Busts, and Echoes: How the Biggest Demographic Upheaval in History is Affecting Global Development

David E. Bloom and David Canning
PGDA Working Paper #15.2006

• • • • • • Global Demography: Fact, Force and Future

David E. Bloom and David Canning
PGDA Working Paper #14.2006

• • • • • • The Consequences of Population Health for Economic Performance

Marcella Alsan, David Bloom, David Canning, and Dean Jamison
PGDA Working Paper #13.2006

• • • • • • China’s Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Investment Premia

Rod Tyers and Jane Golley
PGDA Working Paper #12.2006

• • • • • • China’s Growth to 2030: Demographic Change and the Labour Supply Constraint

Jane Golley and Rod Tyers
PGDA Working Paper #11.2006

• • • • • • The Global Implications of Freer Skilled Migration

Rod Tyers, Iain Bain and Jahnvi Vedi
PGDA Working Paper #10.2006

• • • • • Epidemics and Economics
          David E. Bloom, David Canning
          PGDA Working Paper #9.2006
        • • Demographic Challenges, Fiscal Sustainability and Economic Growth

David E. Bloom, David Canning
PGDA Working Paper #8.2006

• • • • • • Endogenous Longevity and Economic Growth

Jocelyn Finlay
PGDA Working Paper #7.2006

2005

• • • • • • The Influence of Medicare Home Health Payment Incentives: Does Payer Source Matter?

David C. Grabowski, David G. Stevenson, Haiden A. Huskamp, Nancy L. Keating
PGDA Working Paper #6.2005

• • • • • • The Political Economy of Reform in Brazil’s Civil Servant Pension Scheme

André Medici
PGDA Working Paper #5.2005

• • • • • • The Centrality of Variability How Society Shapes Patterns of Aging

Lisa F. Berkman, Maria Glymour
PGDA Working Paper #4.2004

• • • • • • Perceptions of Risk and Strategies for Prevention: Responses to HIV/AIDS in Rural Malawi

Kirsten P. Smith, Susan Cotts Watkins
PGDA Working Paper #3.2005

• • • • • • The Effect of Improvements in Health and Longevity on Optimal Retirement and Saving

David E. Bloom, David Canning, Michael Moore
HIGH Working Paper #2.2005

• • • • • • Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance

David E. Bloom, David Canning
HIGH Working Paper #1.2005